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Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 1:25:37 PM
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ManimalX
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Do you think Obama will come out of the DNC in Denver with a significant poll bump?
Do you think the Bradley or Wilder effect will have any influence in this election?
(The Bradley effect is the appearance of a non-white candidate polling better than they actually perform in the election due to people giving false support to the non-white candidate in polls so that the pollster won't think them racist. This effect has been known to generate up to 12 point differentials between pre-election polls and actual election results)
Post your polling predictions and contemplations here!
_____________________________
"But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, and then the heavens will pass away with a roar, and the heavenly bodies will be burned up and dissolved, and the earth and the works that are done on it will be exposed." - 2nd Peter 3:10
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:05:50 PM
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rcjames
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After the supposed coronation (if HRC does not mess that up, which is a distinct possibility) Obama bounce will be around 7 points.
Then after the Republican Convention it will be all downhill for the "Brothers of Arrogance" H. Hussein, and Joe (Obams is clean for a black guy) Biden..
Thanks
RC
_____________________________
Just a country Preacher's humble opinion
Read the first chapter of my latest book here;
http://www.deliveranceofsara.com
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:07:33 PM
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Dubya
Posts: 1019
Joined: 10/25/2006
From: Texas
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rcjames
After the supposed coronation (if HRC does not mess that up, which is a distinct possibility) Obama bounce will be around 7 points.
Then after the Republican Convention it will be all downhill for the "Brothers of Arrogance" H. Hussein, and Joe.
Thanks
RC
I think you may be a little too optimistic! I doubt that there will be much of a bounce at all. If there is, it will be totally media driven and will drop quickly, as you have predicted.
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:08:28 PM
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wing2000
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I'm ignoring polls until October. They merely serve to drive speculative "news" stories.
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:09:17 PM
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rcjames
Posts: 5668
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From: Oklahoma
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Dubya
quote:
ORIGINAL: rcjames
After the supposed coronation (if HRC does not mess that up, which is a distinct possibility) Obama bounce will be around 7 points.
Then after the Republican Convention it will be all downhill for the "Brothers of Arrogance" H. Hussein, and Joe.
Thanks
RC
I think you may be a little too optimistic! I doubt that there will be much of a bounce at all. If there is, it will be totally media driven and will drop quickly, as you have predicted.
You are probably correct Dubya, I was just trying to be kind to the Kool-Aid drinkers on the thread and not give them apoplexia.
Thanks
RC
_____________________________
Just a country Preacher's humble opinion
Read the first chapter of my latest book here;
http://www.deliveranceofsara.com
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:12:03 PM
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tafkam
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I don't know that Obama will get much of a bump, seeing as how the whole first half of the week is going to be co-opted by the Clintons.
_____________________________
"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan
Tafkam
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:14:33 PM
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ManimalX
Posts: 1269
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I personally think that Obama has already peaked. His 15 point lead has turned into a 5 point deficit in a matter of months. He may get a 3 - 5 point bounce if he handles the DNC well, but that will quickly evaporate unless McCain does something stupid like pick a liberal VP. If you factor in the Bradley effect, Obama's campaign is seriously in the tank, and he will need at least a 15 point bounce that won't fade away.
_____________________________
"But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, and then the heavens will pass away with a roar, and the heavenly bodies will be burned up and dissolved, and the earth and the works that are done on it will be exposed." - 2nd Peter 3:10
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RE: Predictions: Polls after DNC? - 8/23/2008 2:24:11 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
After the supposed coronation (if HRC does not mess that up, which is a distinct possibility) Obama bounce will be around 7 points.
Historically speaking a candidate usually gets an average 6 point bump in the polls after the convention.
However there are a few things at play that may dramatically change that:
1.Democrats historically are further ahead in the polls at this stage then NObama currently is.
2.McCain is moving up in the polls recently
3.Hillary and Bill have significant prime-time speaking positions in the convention so it depends on what happens with them.
4.Hillary's supporters may not come over to NObama's side, again depending on what is said during the convention.
5.And this is important, this is the first time in a long time, if ever, that the conventions run back to back. So McCain has an opportunity to steal NObama's thunder.
Also, as has been pointed out in other threads the Democrats have increased voter registration something like 700,000 since 2004 while the Republicans have decreases by a larger amount. Yet NObama is in a virtual tie with McCain in most of the polls and McCain leads in a few others.
So if there are more Democratic voters and fewer Republican voters since 2004, why isn't NObama further ahead in the polls? It appears he has the same problem he had with Hillary, that he can't put the election away. And even though he beat Hillary a lot of strategists claim that Hillary waited too long to go on the offensive. McCain is not making that mistake.
It will be interesting to say the least.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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