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Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 1:52:25 PM
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RichLP
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So what is VP Cheney and other hawk/warmongers who want the US to attack Iran say now?
Cynical though this sounds, I bet you a lot of people are still going to clamor for war against Iran.
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"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 1:53:56 PM
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Stephanos
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LINK much?
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 1:54:21 PM
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ctipton
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quote:
I bet you a lot of people are still going to clamor for war against Iran.
Who is clamoring for war?
And I am not convinced that Iran is not developing a program to develop nuclear weapons.
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 2:04:02 PM
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TheoCentric
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4 years ago! That can't be right! They have gotta be developing nuclear weapons. They just have to be. Aren't they buying uranium from Niger? Don't they have direct ties to Al Quaida?
Wait, wrong country. Sorry... 
Btw, your links don't work. I had to copy and paste.
_____________________________
"Missions exists because worship doesn't." -- John Piper, Let the Nations be Glad
God at the Center - Latest post - John 3:16 conference?
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 2:11:45 PM
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Stephanos
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Thought that is what you were mentioning but did not want to assume. But lets look at the NIE report.
quote:
The key judgments conclude with "high confidence" that:
Until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons;
In fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program;
The halt lasted at least several years;
Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do reverse course;
The halt, and Tehran's announcement that it has suspended its declared uranium enrichment program and signed additional safeguards relating to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty are "primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran's previously undeclared nuclear work"; and
Iran will not be technically capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015.
I like the bolded parts. Iran can produce nukes if it decides it wants to. AND that the scrutiny and pressure against their nuke program is what got them to STOP. AKA...The CURRENT administrations attitude towards Iran and its nuclear program WORKED in getting them to stop weapons research. We have President BUSH to thank for this news that Iran is not currently working towards a weapon.
quote:
The judgments find with "moderate-to-high confidence" that:
Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon;
Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons; and
Iran has not obtained enough weapons-usable fissile material to develop nuclear weapons, though the NIE assesses with low confidence the importation at all of some material. The report does not rule out that Iran "has acquired from abroad or will acquire in the future a nuclear weapon or enough fissile material for a weapon."
The problem is not that Iran is not currently seeking a nuclear weapon (though note that the "Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon" is NOT in the high confidence section of the report), it is that they, under the current power structure (aka radical Islam), COULD get a nuclear weapon. Any and all efforts need to be taken to make sure that Iran NEVER gets nukes. If we get lazy now because they dont have them now, then when they test their first one we will be sorry.
It is truly good news that Iran is currently not trying to get nukes. But we need to make sure it STAYS that way until Iran becomes a completely free nation, free of the tyrannical rule of radical Islam. It is also good to know that President Bush HAS done the right think, in putting pressure both economic and political on Iran. War should be a last resort. This NIE report shows that we may not have to use war. But we SHOULD NOT LET UP! Not now not ever!
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 2:18:52 PM
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WesP
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National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003
The judgments also find with "moderate confidence" that:
Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but the NIE notes that its intentions to develop weapons is unknown;
The earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that is very unlikely;
More likely is that it would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015;
Iran probably would use covert facilities rather than its declared nuclear sites in its effort to produce highly enriched uranium for a weapon.
The report concludes that Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006 despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program, and made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, its chief nuclear plant.
In those efforts, Iranian agencies are still working on creating the technology that could be used for producing nuclear weapons, if it turned toward that activity.
Last I heard, they had 3000 centrifuges set up in arrays. That is massive overkill for producing material for a reactor. Makes one wonder...
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Peace,
Wes
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<--- BTW, this is the true function of corn! It is to help the oil industry and its functionaries, not detract from them! 
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 3:04:29 PM
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cow451
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quote:
ORIGINAL: WesSavedByGrace
National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003
The judgments also find with "moderate confidence" that:
Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but the NIE notes that its intentions to develop weapons is unknown;
The earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that is very unlikely;
More likely is that it would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015;
Iran probably would use covert facilities rather than its declared nuclear sites in its effort to produce highly enriched uranium for a weapon.
The report concludes that Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006 despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program, and made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, its chief nuclear plant.
In those efforts, Iranian agencies are still working on creating the technology that could be used for producing nuclear weapons, if it turned toward that activity.
Last I heard, they had 3000 centrifuges set up in arrays. That is massive overkill for producing material for a reactor. Makes one wonder...
And when we invade, they'll ship the stuff to Syria.  Or maybe they'll send it to Iraq, since it will be free and stable. 
_____________________________
Wenn zuerst Sie nicht gelingen, Versuch, versuch wieder. Geben Sie dann auf. Es gibt keinen punkt, in ein zu sein, verdammt Narren darum. -- W. C. Fields
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 3:24:53 PM
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WesP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: cow451
quote:
ORIGINAL: WesSavedByGrace
National Intelligence Team: Iran Stopped Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003
The judgments also find with "moderate confidence" that:
Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but the NIE notes that its intentions to develop weapons is unknown;
The earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that is very unlikely;
More likely is that it would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon sometime between 2010 and 2015;
Iran probably would use covert facilities rather than its declared nuclear sites in its effort to produce highly enriched uranium for a weapon.
The report concludes that Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006 despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program, and made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, its chief nuclear plant.
In those efforts, Iranian agencies are still working on creating the technology that could be used for producing nuclear weapons, if it turned toward that activity.
Last I heard, they had 3000 centrifuges set up in arrays. That is massive overkill for producing material for a reactor. Makes one wonder...
And when we invade, they'll ship the stuff to Syria. Or maybe they'll send it to Iraq, since it will be free and stable.
_____________________________
Peace,
Wes
___________________________________
<--- BTW, this is the true function of corn! It is to help the oil industry and its functionaries, not detract from them!
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 4:19:32 PM
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Leon_Figg3
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I seem to rememebr a radio program I heard when there seemed to be a lot of "saber rattling" between Iran and the US over its nuclear program. One of the "talking heads" on the program stated that Iran would eventually back down, but not totally halt is nuclear program because they knew it would be more beneifical for them to wait for the Democrats to get in power, rather than continue their confrontation with the Bush administration.
Appearances are decieving, epecially in the Middle East.
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To whom much is given, much is expected.
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/3/2007 10:46:53 PM
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wing2000
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quote:
The judgments also find with "moderate confidence" that:
...maybe the Bush Administration has finally learned to pay attention to confidence level language...but I'm not so sure (especially with VP Cheney still in residence).
Bush, Aides Ignored CIA Caveats on Iraq
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20194-2004Feb6.html
< Message edited by wing2000 -- 12/3/2007 11:13:13 PM >
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 12:35:08 AM
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rlj
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quote:
And when we invade, they'll ship the stuff to Syria. Or maybe they'll send it to Iraq, since it will be free and stable.
That'll be a good project for the Iraqi WPA in the next few years- building more secret tunnels and caches under the Tigris and Euphrates to store all of the Iranian nuclear weapons.
As for Syria though- how are they going to get it through the millions of dislocated Iraqi refugees that are scattered all over the country?
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-Roger
1 Thess 5:20 do not treat prophecies with contempt. 21 Test everything. Hold on to the good. (NIV)
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:16:41 AM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Stephanos
It is also good to know that President Bush HAS done the right think, in putting pressure both economic and political on Iran.
If I understand you correctly, you are crediting Bush with Iran not having nukes. If so, you're wrong.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:18:34 AM
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stamper_ben
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Economic and political pressure does nothing then?
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:21:50 AM
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TheoCentric
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quote:
ORIGINAL: stamper_ben
Economic and political pressure does nothing then?
What Rich is saying is that Bush has not started putting the pressure on until this last year. Since Iran quit it's nuclear weapons program over 4 years ago, one cannot credit Bush's policies with Iran stopping it's program. Quite logical, if you think about it. Bush was not pursuing sanctions against Iran in 2002-2003. He was too busy coming up with reasons to take out another country.
_____________________________
"Missions exists because worship doesn't." -- John Piper, Let the Nations be Glad
God at the Center - Latest post - John 3:16 conference?
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:25:08 AM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: stamper_ben
Economic and political pressure does nothing then?
Political pressure only hardened the hawks in Iran's leadership and weakened the moderates who made overtures to us years ago. The economic pressure only went so far since other nations trade with Iran, and since the Iraqi example would not have perfectly applied because Iraq was beaten up by the 1991 war whereas Iran's infrastructure was not affected by massive bombing the way Iraq's was.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:27:22 AM
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ctipton
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quote:
He was too busy coming up with reasons to take out another country.
I think you know better than this characterization. Iran was not on the list of nations to invade due to many factors including the hope of their people to make necessary reforms as well as Iran's assistance in the War on Terror. And I think that keeping nukes out of Iran is a long-standing policy of this nation preceding Bush.
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:27:28 AM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ccoppenbarger
quote:
ORIGINAL: stamper_ben
Economic and political pressure does nothing then?
What Rich is saying is that Bush has not started putting the pressure on until this last year. Since Iran quit it's nuclear weapons program over 4 years ago, one cannot credit Bush's policies with Iran stopping it's program. Quite logical, if you think about it. Bush was not pursuing sanctions against Iran in 2002-2003. He was too busy coming up with reasons to take out another country.
And not just that, Ccoppenbarger, but the argument that Bush is to be credited with this news falls on the grounds that Bush and his administration were quite hawkish not only towards Iran but also toward North Korea. North Korea openly cited pressure from the US as a reason it weaponized nuclear fuel.
In other words, talk of regime change spurred one regime to build and subsequently, to test a nuclear weapon, and in the case of Iran's regime, it spurred at least some leaders to go for one. Fortunately, the Islamic Republic did not follow the steps of the Democratic People's Republic north of the Korean DMZ.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:29:43 AM
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RichLP
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I have a question to those here who claimed Iran was building nukes, or who believed it when our leaders said Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons (posts can be found here on CW).
Why did you believe it? What evidence did you have?
You would not have stopped believing it without this report, whereas some of us who said there was no proof Iran was building nukes stood fast by what we claimed. Now, what sources can you provide to validate your claims Iran was building nukes ... other than the hawkish claims by people such as Richard Cheney?
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:33:36 AM
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ctipton
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Rich I recall that you have consistently been portraying others as being more sure of Iran's production of nuclear weapons than anyone actually posting such a fact. But I think a reasonable man can see that Iran seeks nuclear weapons and that it is in the world's best interest to prevent that from ever occurring.
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:35:18 AM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ctipton
Rich I recall that you have consistently been portraying others as being more sure of Iran's production of nuclear weapons than anyone actually posting such a fact. But I think a reasonable man can see that Iran seeks nuclear weapons and that it is in the world's best interest to prevent that from ever occurring.
Ctipton, what I do recall is that people here said Iran was building nukes and that therefore we had a valid reason to eventually bomb them. Now that this announcement has been made I only wish to know what, if any, sources these individuals utilized to write here that Iran was constructing atomic arms.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:54:05 AM
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TheoCentric
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ctipton
Rich I recall that you have consistently been portraying others as being more sure of Iran's production of nuclear weapons than anyone actually posting such a fact. But I think a reasonable man can see that Iran seeks nuclear weapons and that it is in the world's best interest to prevent that from ever occurring.
You make it sound as if Iran is actively seeking nukes, when the recent report suggests otherwise
_____________________________
"Missions exists because worship doesn't." -- John Piper, Let the Nations be Glad
God at the Center - Latest post - John 3:16 conference?
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 10:54:12 AM
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cow451
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quote:
ORIGINAL: stamper_ben
Economic and political pressure does nothing then?
Sometimes yes, sometimes, no. Take Cuba, for example.
Iranian mullahs, not Abedinajad, make policy decisions. Widespread international pressure has played a role greater than His excellency's clumsey foreign policy.
_____________________________
Wenn zuerst Sie nicht gelingen, Versuch, versuch wieder. Geben Sie dann auf. Es gibt keinen punkt, in ein zu sein, verdammt Narren darum. -- W. C. Fields
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 11:09:30 AM
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ctipton
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quote:
You make it sound as if Iran is actively seeking nukes, when the recent report suggests otherwise
Let me clarify. I do not know what the Iranian government is currently doing. I think a reasonable man will conclude that Iran desires to acquire nuclear weapons and it is a long-term goal of their government.
Rich,
I guess I don't know who you are addressing. If it includes me, you are going to have to let me know. I just recall that you usually present those who disagree with you on this topic in a manner that they would disagree with.
charlie
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RE: Iran not building nukes - 12/4/2007 11:10:46 AM
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ctipton
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quote:
Sometimes yes, sometimes, no. Take Cuba, for example.
Almost always no. And the more authoritarian the government, the less impact. And if the rest of the world is not unified, then it has very little impact indeed.
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