RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the economy?
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 4:42:05 PM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1310
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From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
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quote:
t might be time for Dallas to consider a public transit system. As someone who leans libertarian, I normally hate stupid government projects, but a modest bus system would save everyone money in the aggregate.
As I mentioned, Dallas AND Fort Worth both have mass transit....and, Dallas has bus AND light rail...but, those are only options IF you live in the suburbs, and your commute is to downtown....
Let's take your other example of Chicago....let's say I live in Rosemont, but work in Downtown Chicago: wow....mass transit is a breeze.....
Live in Schamburg and work in Carol Stream or Naperville? Not so many options there....if any.....look at the maps....most (if not all) mass transit in Chicago, and MOST other major cities are intended for mass transit of people to/from the city center....
and, when you do see a city bus here in Dallas, it's empty....they are VERY slow... (unless it's an express bus during "rush hour" on the freeway)
quote:
Maybe you should consider a Hybrid for your next car.
Not that my current car is HORRIBLE on gas....once I do get to the point of replacing my current car, I will definitely have to look at any "price premium" placed on a 3-4 year old hybrid vs. conventional, and make sure that additional cost is worth it...or that the hybrid really does "perform" as well as "advertised" (especially those that are "regular" size cars...and not the super-compacts, which, for me, would not be practical)........as for now, my 11 year old buick is "paid for", and has been for a long time, has 140,000 miles on it, and runs great....i see no purpose in buying another car right now...to save a few bucks on gas?
quote:
Here in NYC
VERY VERY few americans live in an urban city, with the population density required to offer as much mass transit as NYC does.....(BTW...one of the most expensive cities to live in the world)
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 5:06:48 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1809
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quote:
ORIGINAL: kernsfamily
As I mentioned, Dallas AND Fort Worth both have mass transit....and, Dallas has bus AND light rail...but, those are only options IF you live in the suburbs, and your commute is to downtown....
I guess I'm a little confused here. The Chicago suburbs have some inter-suburb mass transit options, and the rail system is planning on adding "tires" to the current hub-and-spoke system. This means that you will eventually be able to get on a train in Carol Stream and commute to Naperville by train, which would be really nice.
quote:
VERY VERY few americans live in an urban city, with the population density required to offer as much mass transit as NYC does.....(BTW...one of the most expensive cities to live in the world)
In all honesty, I found mass transit in Chicago more convenient and reliable than what we have in New York. Metra has a 96.5% on-time average. People who claim the government can't run anything well haven't compared Metra and the airlines recently.
Also, New York is only expensive for food, rent, and cabs. Clothing is cheap.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 5:53:48 PM
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ToolmanUF
Posts: 119
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From: Washington, DC
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quote:
In all honesty, I found mass transit in Chicago more convenient and reliable than what we have in New York. Metra has a 96.5% on-time average. People who claim the government can't run anything well haven't compared Metra and the airlines recently.
Also, New York is only expensive for food, rent, and cabs. Clothing is cheap.
I'm living in DC now, and I find the transit quite reliable if you live in the district, not so much so if you live in the suburbs. There is certainly room for improvements. However, the metro lines do go out to the suburbs, so parking your car at the park and ride stations is an option. And, we have bus lines to the airports, which is very useful for traveling.
When I was studying in Gainesville, Florida, the bus system was adequate enough that I could get to downtown, the mall, the university, and several strip malls without two much inconvenience. I didn't even own a car my first too years, and when I did get one, I mainly used it for groceries. Traffic in Gainesville was AWFUL so I didn't mind sitting on the bus, studying or reading a book, as I commuted to the university or downtown. Even though Gainesville didn't have near the density of NYC or Chicago, the bus system did get a lot of cars off the road, and I would imagine that more and more professors and other university employees who would have never thought about taking the bus to campus might reconsider hopping on the park and ride!
_____________________________
"Behold, from now on will all ages call me blessed." Luke 1:48
Then he said to the disciple, "Behold, your mother." John 19:27
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 6:02:28 PM
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OLEEguacamole
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we don't have any public transportation in our county.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 6:44:24 PM
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FurGodWurLivin
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From: Kansas City, MO
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What does $135 oil mean for the economy? It means the national emergency reserve is almost worth more than the Federal Debt... Should we want to, we could sell all the oil in the reserve (which would not be smart) to pay off all the trillions of dollars in debt (which would be moral) and quite possibly lower the gobal price on oil.
Adam
_____________________________
I am hyena, Jesus is my Mufasa...
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 9:25:15 PM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: OLEEguacamole
we don't have any public transportation in our county.
You should consider pushing for it- or talking with the folks at work to see if it's time to set up a small bus system. A bus can save everyone about 1/2 to 2/3 the cost of gas, and best of all, everyone can have time to read the newspaper or do whatever on the way to work that they wouldn't have if they were driving.
A typical smaller bus might get 10 mpg and seat 20 people. If you can find just five other people to ride the bus with you, you can probably start saving gas. Now, finding a driver and servicing the bus is more work, but it might make sense depending on who needs to go where.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/23/2008 10:35:55 PM
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OLEEguacamole
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a sprawling community here. the school bus routes are almost an hour ride because of the sprawl.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/24/2008 9:23:19 AM
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wing2000
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quote:
Furthermore, I'm starting to be convinced that short-term oil prices are being influenced by long-term market expectations. Three years ago, oil cost $64/barrel for immediate delivery, but $39 for delivery in 2012. This is normally what happens in oil markets; it's easier to get oil to market three years from now than to get it to market today. Today, we are seeing something different. Oil is trading at $131 for delivery today, but $133 for delivery two years from now. At some point, if the market expects oil to be $140 in several years, oil companies will stop producing oil, thus reducing supply and driving up the price, and if oil still stays at $131, arbitrageurs will buy oil, store it, and then deliver it in eight years, also driving up the price. So if we expect oil to be $200/barrel five years from now, that's going to push up the value of a barrel of oil today.
The reason for high oil prices today might have to do with expectations of supply and demand in several years. If that's the case, doing things that would influence the market five years down the road could help reduce prices today.
Yes, it's interesting (or alarming) to see the market's affect. I read recently that Southwest Airlines hedged their jet fuel when it was at a historic low 2.12 a gallon....no wonder they are the only US airline to consistently post a profit.
excerpt:
According an annual report, here is the company's fuel hedge for forward years ("approximate" per barrel basis, as of mid-January): 2007 is 95% hedged at $50/barrel; 2008 is 65% hedged at $49/barrel; 2009 is over 50% hedged at $51/barrel; 2010 is over 25% hedged at $63/barrel; 2011 is over 15% hedged at $64/barrel; 2012 is 15% hedged at $63/barrel.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines
As consumers we need to buy high efficiency cars (I have my eye on two new Honda hybrids due out in the next two years), take steps to reduce trips and demand that our local governments adopt zoning strategies that keep employers, residences and schools in relative close proximity.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/25/2008 2:45:43 PM
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Concerto
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Here is what needs to be done:
1. Consumers - let us band together and become "united", (I thought the "U" in "U.S." stood for "united", anyways, let us unite in the cause of energy. Let us stop buying those big gas guzzlers (which we know we can live without believe it or not) , let us buy fuel efficient vehicles, let us car pool, and then..let us start talking to our elected officials...
2. Elected officials - authorize drilling offshore in Florida..and wherever else there is oil. Set up tax incentives for the automakers to start making hybrids etc., explore nuclear energy...
If we as consumers and elected officials fail to do SOMETHING, the consequences will be disastrous.
C
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/25/2008 4:32:58 PM
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JnJs_mom
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quote:
Hopefully, these families will take the opportunity to move closer to work.
have you seen the news? Houses are not selling. Two mortgages are very expensive.
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<------- Jessica and I had so much fun with grandma!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/27/2008 4:07:48 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1809
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Leslie35
have you seen the news? Houses are not selling. Two mortgages are very expensive.
I'm talking about the folks who are getting foreclosed on, already. They'll have to rent, and hopefully, that will mean they will be able to move closer to work.
I feel bad about this economic crisis, but there's no real way around it. I also don't think we're quite halfway done with this. After the credit crisis, we will have the interest rate crisis as the fed raises interest rates above the rate of inflation (which may hit 7% by the time we're done.)
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/28/2008 5:09:50 PM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1310
Joined: 4/26/2006
From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
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quote:
The Chicago suburbs have some inter-suburb mass transit options, and the rail system is planning on adding "tires" to the current hub-and-spoke system. This means that you will eventually be able to get on a train in Carol Stream and commute to Naperville by train, which would be really nice.
yep...does sound nice....if it gets completed sometime in the next 40 years, I'll be surprised....
"Light Rail" from where I live to Downtown Dallas (which won't help me in my commute, but will help some), is set to be completed in 2010....that's a 17 1/2 mile extension from where light-rail service currently stops....just this particular expansion has been in the "planning/proposal" stages for about 10 years.....
hmmm....12 years for 17 1/2 miles of track!....that's the government at work!
In contrast, 1,756 miles of track was laid over the course of 6 years to complete the "transcontinental railroad"....
In the meantime, people still have to get to work in the best way that they can....
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/29/2008 5:15:20 PM
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JnJs_mom
Posts: 894
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My house has been for sale for over a year.
quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
quote:
ORIGINAL: Leslie35
have you seen the news? Houses are not selling. Two mortgages are very expensive.
I'm talking about the folks who are getting foreclosed on, already. They'll have to rent, and hopefully, that will mean they will be able to move closer to work.
I feel bad about this economic crisis, but there's no real way around it. I also don't think we're quite halfway done with this. After the credit crisis, we will have the interest rate crisis as the fed raises interest rates above the rate of inflation (which may hit 7% by the time we're done.)
_____________________________
<------- Jessica and I had so much fun with grandma!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/30/2008 11:54:59 AM
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davemiller7
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From: NC via NY
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They're trying to get a "light rail" thing going here in the Raleigh area. Supposedly it will serve Raleigh, Cary, RTP, and Durham. It was proposed sometime in the mid '90s. As of right now, nothing has happened except meetings and money raising. No rail, not anything. It will be a farce anyway because it won't be serving the outlying areas and smaller surrounding cities where the majority of people (commuters) live.
-Dave
quote:
ORIGINAL: kernsfamily
quote:
The Chicago suburbs have some inter-suburb mass transit options, and the rail system is planning on adding "tires" to the current hub-and-spoke system. This means that you will eventually be able to get on a train in Carol Stream and commute to Naperville by train, which would be really nice.
yep...does sound nice....if it gets completed sometime in the next 40 years, I'll be surprised....
"Light Rail" from where I live to Downtown Dallas (which won't help me in my commute, but will help some), is set to be completed in 2010....that's a 17 1/2 mile extension from where light-rail service currently stops....just this particular expansion has been in the "planning/proposal" stages for about 10 years.....
hmmm....12 years for 17 1/2 miles of track!....that's the government at work!
In contrast, 1,756 miles of track was laid over the course of 6 years to complete the "transcontinental railroad"....
In the meantime, people still have to get to work in the best way that they can....
_____________________________
-Dave
The Prayer of Protection
The light of God surrounds me,
The love of God enfolds me,
The power of God protects me,
The presence of God watches over me.
Wherever I am, God is.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 5/31/2008 9:36:43 AM
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blessedinnyc
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I do find it interesting that as gas prices go up, claims about mass transit's cost and construction time keep going up exponentially.
If we ever hit $10/gallon, I'm sure the Dallas rail extension will be estimated to cost $2 Trillion.
< Message edited by blessedinnyc -- 5/31/2008 9:42:43 AM >
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/2/2008 8:33:13 PM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: inthysite
Okay here is what I want to know. Oil prices have dropped over the last several days, from $135 to $127 I think, I may be wrong.
But why if the price of oil is dropping has the price at the pump remained the same? When there is even a mention of oil prices going up the prices at the pump jump immediately, you can notice the changes within an hour or so.
It has to do with irrational consumer behavior. (Not that I'm blaming consumers- it's human nature; they just don't act like a computer would.) Consumers tend to scour for low prices when gas prices are going up, but they don't do the same when they are going down. Think about it- if you're used to paying $4/gallon, are you going to be quite as concerned about the price when it goes down to $3.90? What happens for the reverse? When I see gas stations start raising prices, I immediately start looking for one that still has the old price.
quote:
But when the price of oil goes down it takes at least a week or more for the prices at the pump to go down.
The AP says it's because of the following:
Oil prices fell back Thursday ahead of a report expected to show U.S. inventories of crude and petroleum products grew last week.
Prices remained volatile, though, buffeted about by threats against Nigerian oil facilities, worries about falling gasoline demand in the U.S. and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Gas prices keep climbing even as oil prices drop
Okay, so now gas prices are high because of reduced demand and a stronger US dollar??!!!
Before they said that gas prices were high because of increased demand and a weak dollar. So which is it? 
There's a number of factors. I haven't been paying as much attention to the energy market in general as I should have over the past few weeks, but it may be that the crack-spreads are going up, which tends to happen in the summer. The crack-spread is basically the difference between the cost of oil going into a refinery and the value of the products coming out.
Another factor may be delays in reporting. It takes two minutes to get oil market data from the floor of the NYMEX onto CNBC, at the most. It often takes several days to take a nationwide survey of gas station prices. On top of that, often, there's a bit of a time lag between price changes in the oil markets and prices at the gas pump. IIRC, Katrina either hit on a Sunday when the oil markets were closed- or it was announced that it was going to hit New Orleans on a Sunday. I immediately called all of my friends and warned them to make sure they bought a full tank of gas before the oil markets opened on Monday if they desperately needed to do any driving (and suggested they cancel plans for any unnecessary driving). On Monday, the price of crude spiked, but gas prices didn't change. It took about 48-72 hours for gas prices to finally adjust up about $1.
Today, things may be different, but there used to be some lag time between the oil market and the gas station.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 9:28:05 AM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1310
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From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
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quote:
Before they said that gas prices were high because of increased demand and a weak dollar. So which is it?
a combination of both...along with other "issues", as well.
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 9:55:07 AM
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inthysite
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quote:
ORIGINAL: kernsfamily
quote:
Before they said that gas prices were high because of increased demand and a weak dollar. So which is it?
a combination of both...along with other "issues", as well.
My point was that the article I referenced states that while oil prices are dropping the price at the pump hasn't dropped due to lower demand and a stronger US dollar. However before they were saying just the opposite, that the high prices were due to high demand and a weak dollar.
Sounds to me that they just continue to look for ways to explain/justify the price gouging that is going on.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 9:55:42 AM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
If we ever hit $10/gallon, I'm sure the Dallas rail extension will be estimated to cost $2 Trillion.
Is that per mile? I know in LA it costs a quarter billion just to build a diamond lane interchange and now there is noise about making diamond lanes toll lanes! The nerve!!!
We pay the highest gas tax in the nation that is supposed to be going towards maintaining the roads. Also, I found out this year that our state's gas tax is a percentage of the price so as the price goes up so does the amount of tax we pay!!! There was a story on the evening news about how the high gas prices are helping the state government fill the coffers of the Genral Fund replacing what was lost to the sluggish economy. Talk about squeezing blood from a turnip!!
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 9:59:53 AM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1310
Joined: 4/26/2006
From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
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quote:
justify the price gouging that is going on.
explain this "price gouging"...
who, exactly, is "gouging"?
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 11:29:41 AM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1809
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quote:
ORIGINAL: kernsfamily
quote:
justify the price gouging that is going on.
explain this "price gouging"...
who, exactly, is "gouging"?
Well, price gouging does happen. It's taking advantage of someone's lack of bargaining power to obtain an above market price if you're selling (or below market price if you're buying.)
It's difficult for it to happen when there's a lot of competition, so I don't think it happens on the NYMEX, but there certainly was some price-gouging on the part of gas station owners after September 11th. I heard that some gas stations were charging $5/gallon for gasoline when the NYMEX price was roughly $1.10, and after taxes, the cost was about $1.50.
I don't think it's possible for oil producers to engage in price-gouging when the largest publicly traded oil company produces only 4% of the world's oil, but it's certainly possible for refiners, distributors, and retailers to manipulate the market or otherwise use various events to get a well-above-market price for energy. BP and Enron, for example, have both gotten into trouble for market manipulation in the energy markets, and in some ways, we can interpret these events as a form of price-gouging.
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 11:57:11 AM
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inthysite
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I am by no means an expert in this field, however when prices jump 10 cents a gallon because of a possibility of something happening I know something is not right.
A hurricane forms off the Gulf and they think it might hit the drilling sites there prices go up. Threat of war/conflict, prices go up. Iran threatens Israel, prices go up. Nothing actually happens but prices go up.
For example, in the article from the AP;
quote:
Prices remained volatile, though, buffeted about by threats against Nigerian oil facilities
Threats against Nigerian oil facilities contribute to higher prices. Not an actual attack, just a threat.
Bottom line; I don't know who is to blame, maybe the speculators but like I said, I'm no expert. All I know is it ain't right.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 12:13:31 PM
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mapachito13
Posts: 2227
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quote:
ORIGINAL: inthysite
I am by no means an expert in this field, however when prices jump 10 cents a gallon because of a possibility of something happening I know something is not right.
A hurricane forms off the Gulf and they think it might hit the drilling sites there prices go up. Threat of war/conflict, prices go up. Iran threatens Israel, prices go up. Nothing actually happens but prices go up.
For example, in the article from the AP;
quote:
Prices remained volatile, though, buffeted about by threats against Nigerian oil facilities
Threats against Nigerian oil facilities contribute to higher prices. Not an actual attack, just a threat.
Bottom line; I don't know who is to blame, maybe the speculators but like I said, I'm no expert. All I know is it ain't right.
It is indeed the speculators because the commodity brokers are selling contracts for oil produced in the future and that is why what "may" happen has a bearing on the price today.
Speculators have been responsible for many a recession, stock market or real estate market crash. The little guy pays the biggest price for this while the government bails out the speculators who usually can afford the loss (remember Bear Stearns, the S&L fiasco?).
Whose there to bail out the little guy who now may need to work until he's eighty to replace the equity lost in his house or retirement fund?
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Oil hits $135/barrel- what does this mean for the e... - 6/3/2008 12:14:30 PM
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kernsfamily
Posts: 1310
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From: Dallas (originally Detroit)
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this article ran recently in the Dallas Morning News....it's the best one I have read so far that objectively explains the prices in today's market....
May 25, 2008 12:00 AM Age: 10 days
BY: THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS
JIM LANDERS AND ELIZABETH SOUDER, STAFF WRITERS
You're paying way more for gasoline than common sense would suggest, and you might be surprised by who's to blame.
Not the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It lost control of the markets 20 years ago. Not Big Oil. It contributes only a sliver of global oil supply. Not the government. The U.S. investment in oil is relatively small.
Each of these former powerhouses influences the market sometimes, but these days what's driving prices higher is a rush of new investors. From professional fund managers to regular people trying to make a buck, investors with no interest in actually owning oil are pouring billions of dollars into oil markets.
Those investors are banking on fears that it will become much more difficult and expensive to produce oil, and, eventually, the world might not have enough.
For the rest of the story.......CLICK HERE
_____________________________
Proud dad of 3 great girls....Erin, Emilie and Elise
Blessed to have all of them in a "totally awesome" public elementary school!
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