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Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 12:48:49 PM
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todd_t
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25600798/
IMO, while the Iranian government is certainly growing bolder with its sabre-rattling with today's missile test, I'm not sure that it constitutes any real threat to US or regional interests.
For one thing, North Korea has a history of performing tests like these to remind the world it must be paid attention to like a spoiled child - then after a day or two, they shut up, and everything goes back to normal.
Secondly, considering how superior Israel's military forces are (compared to Iran's), I don't buy arguments that Iran is a threat to them. Israel may be a small nation in comparison to Iran, but it is very capable of taking care of itself. Same story goes for US military outposts in the region. Further, I don't buy that Iran is a threat to their Arab neighbors either unless its leadership is stupid enough to make enemies on all sides.
Anyhow, thoughts? Comments? Complaints?
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 2:55:25 PM
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Stephanos
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I say both.
They "intend" it as a threat, or atleast a warning. But in reality, if they think a few missles will stop the US military (or Israel for that matter) they are sadly mistaken.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 3:23:43 PM
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cow451
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It's a negotiating tactic.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 3:31:38 PM
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rcjames
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How far is it from modern day Iran back to the stoneage?
It Woud probably be best for the world as a whole if we helped the Iranians to make the trip.
Thsnks
RC
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 3:55:43 PM
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mapachito13
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I disagree that the other Arab nations don't see them as a threat. They are a belligerant, emerging nuclear threat who is made up of Shia's which are considered the apostates of Islam. Their coastline parallels the Persian Gulf where a good portion of the world's oil passes through including the Strait of Hormuz where it narrows to 21 miles accross, well within range of any short range missles.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 7:23:34 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
How far is it from modern day Iran back to the stoneage? It Woud probably be best for the world as a whole if we helped the Iranians to make the trip.
So you have no problem with killing millions of innocent people in Iran who have nothing to do with the higher-ups who set military policy, I take it?
quote:
It's a negotiating tactic.
I agree that Amadinajahd (sp?) is borrowing from Kim Jong Il's playbook of throwing periodic tantrums to get the West's attention, but whereas North Korea's people are starving and desperately need foreign aid and fuel, what would Iran's goal be in behaving the same way with its own sabre-rattling?
Frankly, I don't know what they expect to gain.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/9/2008 7:43:10 PM
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wing2000
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I don't think Iran want's to initiate any conflict (shoot why would they? they have the US forces bogged down in neighboring Iraq and they have no reason to provoke Israel).
quote:
Secondly, considering how superior Israel's military forces are (compared to Iran's), I don't buy arguments that Iran is a threat to them. Israel may be a small nation in comparison to Iran, but it is very capable of taking care of itself.
Israel may still have the superior military, but it's ability to take out key Iranian resources with a 1982 style air strike will be very limited given the improved defensive measures Iran has taken against such an attack.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 6:04:18 AM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
Frankly, I don't know what they expect to gain.
I think they are trying to stoke national pride and gain regional hegemony more than anything else. Their President, though, is a messianic lunatic who thinks Allah has hand chosen him to bring jihad to the west. He's like those kids that were taunting the tiger in the CA zoo a while back. They felt like macho men until the tiger attacked!
And those troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are situated close enough to support any attack on Iran from either side! But God forbid that should happen!
_____________________________
Three Nails to protect us!
And Justice for all!
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 9:08:29 AM
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WormHeart
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t
Frankly, I don't know what they expect to gain.
It's a message.
As the war-drums in the west grow louder, this is their way of saying: "If you attack us, we can reach your bases in the area."
Just like when the US is performing naval manouvers outside Iranian territories or China having big naval hum-drums in proximity of Taiwan.
Old, old tactic.
WormHeart
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 10:56:36 AM
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fiat_lux
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quote:
How far is it from modern day Iran back to the stoneage?
It Woud probably be best for the world as a whole if we helped the Iranians to make the trip.
It would probably be best for the human beings in Iran if we didn't.
quote:
I agree that Amadinajahd (sp?) is borrowing from Kim Jong Il's playbook of throwing periodic tantrums to get the West's attention, but whereas North Korea's people are starving and desperately need foreign aid and fuel, what would Iran's goal be in behaving the same way with its own sabre-rattling?
Frankly, I don't know what they expect to gain.
One thing to keep in mind is that Ahmedinejad is not quite the secure dictator that Kim Jong-Il is. He has to maintain the support of the Islamic council, which approves the limited list of candidates for president; and of the public, which votes on those candidates. I suspect he thinks he can do that by proving that Iran is a major power that can intimidate Israel and the United States. A few weeks ago there was a new head of Parliament who was less extremist than he was himself, so it may be that he also feels he's running out of time to make these moves. He also has the election next year to worry about.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 2:07:39 PM
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Peter_Gunn
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
How is their longest range missle (1,200 miles) a threat to the continental U.S.?  Distance between Tehran, IR & Miami, US - Miles: 7718.07
We have to care because Israel is within that distance.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 4:01:06 PM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Stephanos
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
How is their longest range missle (1,200 miles) a threat to the continental U.S.? Distance between Tehran, IR & Miami, US - Miles: 7718.07
So I guess that you dont care that our US service members around the Middle East are in range? Did you know that the US Fifth Fleet with over 16,000 sailors/marines is based in Bahrain? That is WELL with in SHORT missle range of Iran!! Oh, but who cares, YOUR house is not at threat so who cares right?
The Iranian military would, and will never - NEVER - strike American targets first. The Iranians have never spoused a 'first-strike' policy and any actions they attempt to conduct on any American forces in the region would be strictly and only retaliatory. In this the Iranians are quite rational: theirs is a solid military by 3rd world standards, but weak compared to America's. The USAF can incapacitate Iran's air force in one day.
Iran is a regional power with the ability to inflict damage in the region, but it will never be the initial aggressor. The last time Iran waged aggressive war was in the 18th Century - before the establishment of an independent United States of America.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 4:02:07 PM
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RichLP
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Those of you whose posts lead me to believe you would favor a strike on Iran - when the price of oil hits upwards to $300 or more a barrel, and possibly $12 a gallon at the pump - will you still be supportive of a war on Iran?
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 4:31:39 PM
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Leon_Figg3
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quote:
ORIGINAL: RichLP
The Iranian military would, and will never - NEVER - strike American targets first. The Iranians have never spoused a 'first-strike' policy and any actions they attempt to conduct on any American forces in the region would be strictly and only retaliatory.
On who's authority, or factual and supportive intelligence do you base such conclusions?
I am not one who believes that just because something never happened in the passed, there is no chance/ possibility it will happen. One needs to look at what the leader of Iran has said and done, and remember that he would highly unlikely be allowed to say and do what he has said and done if he didn't feel/ know he didn't have the support of those who actually held power. Then there is the example that Hitler set-someone who used the system to get to that level of power that he sought then abolished that system.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 4:36:43 PM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Leon_Figg3
On who's authority, or factual and supportive intelligence do you base such conclusions?
I am not one who believes that just because something never happened in the passed, there is no chance/ possibility it will happen. One needs to look at what the leader of Iran has said and done, and remember that he would highly unlikely be allowed to say and do what he has said and done if he didn't feel/ know he didn't have the support of those who actually held power. Then there is the example that Hitler set-someone who used the system to get to that level of power that he sought then abolished that system.
As someone who is in the military, you should know way too well that any country who strikes the United States will at least get a huge strike back and at worst risk national suicide. The Iranians know they are outmatched if they were to fight the United States in a full-scale conventional war. Every country in the world knows that American military power is not to be underestimated.
As for "the leader of Iran," I wonder whether you are referring to the Supreme Jurisprudence Khamanei or to the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. I've discussed the latter's comments here previously.
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"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 5:00:36 PM
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Stephanos
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93 WTC bombings, Africa Embassy Bombings, Saudi Barrack bombings, USS Cole; all together only warrented a few cruse missles to a old, abandoned tranning location.
Dont tell me any attack would be responded to with overwhelming forces. Clinton not only let our military degrade, but when it came time to respond we did not. As for Kosevo, watch the movie Wag the Dog...That was produced and in movie theaters BEFORE Monica and Kosevo, yet it so perfectly matched what happened.
I have no doubts that while President Bush is in office, Iran will continue to behave. If Obama is elected, THEN they will start to go even further, and IF something happens, Obama is going to crumple like a wet sack of cement. Any attack on our forces or interests over seas will not instill a counter reaction, but a utter retreat of all our forces from all over the world back home.
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 6:42:12 PM
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RichLP
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Stephanos
93 WTC bombings, Africa Embassy Bombings, Saudi Barrack bombings, USS Cole; all together only warrented a few cruse missles to a old, abandoned tranning location.
Dont tell me any attack would be responded to with overwhelming forces. Clinton not only let our military degrade, but when it came time to respond we did not. As for Kosevo, watch the movie Wag the Dog...That was produced and in movie theaters BEFORE Monica and Kosevo, yet it so perfectly matched what happened.
I have no doubts that while President Bush is in office, Iran will continue to behave. If Obama is elected, THEN they will start to go even further, and IF something happens, Obama is going to crumple like a wet sack of cement. Any attack on our forces or interests over seas will not instill a counter reaction, but a utter retreat of all our forces from all over the world back home.
Stephanos:
Nothing you said in this post I am quoting says anything about how Iran might attack Israeli or American targets FIRST.
It is the sovereign right of every nation-state to employ military power under its command to defend itself against aggression. If any country launched a military strike on the United States, the United States would have the right to self-defense. Ditto for Israel.
And, ditto for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
As for Bill Clinton, USS Cole... all completely irrelevant.
As for what Barack Obama might or might not do as president, also irrelevant. It is speculation.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 6:46:02 PM
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RichLP
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And to anyone who thinks George W. Bush has been a deterrent on the Axis of Evil countries: why did Bush first say he would refuse bilateral negotations with North Korea, and why has now the Bush Administration chosen a route of engagement with the North Korean government, which is tantamount to Agreed Framework II (let's now forget how Bill Clinton was so blasted for "appeasing" Pyongyang in 1994 via the original Agreed Framework)?
If Bush in office = rogue states behaving, then why did North Korea submit an incomplete report of its activities last week?
If Bush in office = Axis of Evil in control, then why is the Bush administration finishing its existence by granting a Stalinist regime which is guilty of human rights violations on an infernal scale with its removal from the State Department's list of terrorism-sponsoring states?
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 6:47:56 PM
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RichLP
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So folks, again I ask: if the price of oil per barrel shoots up to $300 or even $400 after Iran is attacked by the US or by a joint US/Israel offensive, and after that hits your savings account at the pump, will you still support an attack on Iran?
Because surely men like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are extremely wealthy and do not need to budget their monthly gasoline allotments.
_____________________________
"We have removed an ally of Al Qaeda" - G.W. Bush lies to America and to the world, 5/1/2003
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 6:59:18 PM
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wing2000
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quote:
So folks, again I ask: if the price of oil per barrel shoots up to $300 or even $400 after Iran is attacked by the US or by a joint US/Israel offensive, and after that hits your savings account at the pump, will you still support an attack on Iran?
Because surely men like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are extremely wealthy and do not need to budget their monthly gasoline allotments.
It's only a "mental recession." :0
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 7:18:04 PM
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TaoPoohBear
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Stephanos
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
How is their longest range missle (1,200 miles) a threat to the continental U.S.? Distance between Tehran, IR & Miami, US - Miles: 7718.07
So I guess that you dont care that our US service members around the Middle East are in range? Did you know that the US Fifth Fleet with over 16,000 sailors/marines is based in Bahrain? That is WELL with in SHORT missle range of Iran!! Oh, but who cares, YOUR house is not at threat so who cares right?
quote:
I have no doubts that while President Bush is in office, Iran will continue to behave. If Obama is elected, THEN they will start to go even further, and IF something happens, Obama is going to crumple like a wet sack of cement. Any attack on our forces or interests over seas will not instill a counter reaction, but a utter retreat of all our forces from all over the world back home.
Are you one of those "whiners" McCain's adviser talked about?!
-If I point out your boogyman is no threat to the continental U.S., I say I don't care about our troops?
-If I vote Democratic, I'm voting for surrender?
How about if I point out you are very ignorant about the facts?
A highly inaccurate ballistic type Iranian missle is no threat to the U.S. military (especially the Navy!)
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 7:37:26 PM
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TaoPoohBear
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Peter_Gunn
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
How is their longest range missle (1,200 miles) a threat to the continental U.S.? Distance between Tehran, IR & Miami, US - Miles: 7718.07
We have to care because Israel is within that distance.
Because we wouldn't want Israel to use their 100+ nukes; Or their Aircraft: 1230, Armored Vehicles: 14200, Artillery: 2783, Missile Defense Weapons: 3153, Infantry Support Weapons: 7520, Naval Units: 18 or Available Military Manpower: 2,936,041.
We'll just attack anyone (like Iraq) they want us to! Even if they don't attack, but just act nasty!
Next time you see an American serviceman, you might want to explain to him he's fighting for Israel (and see what he says).
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RE: Iranian Missile Test - Threat or Empty Bluster? - 7/10/2008 7:56:50 PM
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Peter_Gunn
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
quote:
ORIGINAL: Peter_Gunn
quote:
ORIGINAL: TaoPoohBear
How is their longest range missle (1,200 miles) a threat to the continental U.S.? Distance between Tehran, IR & Miami, US - Miles: 7718.07
We have to care because Israel is within that distance.
Because we wouldn't want Israel to use their 100+ nukes; Or their Aircraft: 1230, Armored Vehicles: 14200, Artillery: 2783, Missile Defense Weapons: 3153, Infantry Support Weapons: 7520, Naval Units: 18 or Available Military Manpower: 2,936,041.
We'll just attack anyone (like Iraq) they want us to! Even if they don't attack, but just act nasty!
Next time you see an American serviceman, you might want to explain to him he's fighting for Israel (and see what he says).
And more power to 'em. I've read enough of God's word to know better than to even speak critically of Israel.
The day the U.S. turns its back on Israel (and, according to the Bible, that day will come) is the day I hope to not be alive to see.
Oh, and I have two kids in the Air Force and they know they'd better not be on the side opposing Israel.
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